RAW’s Success and Failure in Bangladesh: A Retrospective Analysis

Regional geopolitics is passing through a volatile and transitional phase. The global balance of power is no longer moving according to the old unipolar design. The traditional power projection of the US-Israel axis has faced serious limitations, especially in the changing Middle Eastern and South Asian theatres. India, as a regional actor, appeared to be convinced that this unipolar bloc would be able to deliver a crushing defeat to Iran, engineer a regime-change operation, and install a puppet administration similar to Reza Shah Pahlavi, or similar to the puppet regimes often seen in different parts of the Muslim world.

The larger calculation was simple but ambitious: after neutralizing Iran, Pakistan could be pressured from the west by using a submissive Iran and Afghanistan, while India would directly confront Pakistan from the east. On paper, it may have looked like an outstanding strategic plan. But that was a plan made by human beings. The Creator had a different plan, and events on the ground moved in a completely opposite direction.

The unipolar global bloc suffered a mortifying strategic setback at the hands of Iran’s IRGC and its technically advanced missile force. At the end of the day, the dream of a Greater Israel reached a humiliating and pathetic conclusion. Eventually, the Indian dream of Akhand Bharat also suffered a demeaning strategic consequence. Under the emerging multipolar world scenario, where the US, China, Russia, Iran, and other powers are reshaping the geopolitical balance, the chances of both Akhand Bharat and Greater Israel are practically over.

This new geopolitical reality has placed India in a quagmire of indecision. India always tries to project itself as a powerful global actor, with a massive ground force, air power, naval fleets, nuclear capability, and above all, its 1.4 billion population. But on the ground, numbers alone do not guarantee military superiority. In terms of military professionalism, operational discipline, and technical skill, India has repeatedly failed to demonstrate a clear advantage even over Pakistan.

World-class intelligence organizations such as Mossad and RAW did not expect such an unfavorable scenario in the Iranian theatre of war. India and Israel may now be forced to change their approaches in order to counter the current strategic reverses. In that ongoing hallucination, India may consider Bangladesh to be one of the softest targets at the moment.

Over the last 16 years, Indian RAW has heavily invested in Bangladesh by allegedly creating Agents in Place (AIP) and Agents of Influence (AOI) within different layers of the civil administration, military structure, intelligence organizations, judiciary, and other sensitive institutions. This investment, and its gradual political success, reached its peak before August 5, 2024.

However, RAW has a long record of suffering defeat in many of the regional political designs it plans and organizes. India invested around Rs 5,000 crore, approximately US$484 million, in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), aiming to create easier access to its north-eastern states. But political unrest and armed conflict in Myanmar devastated that strategic investment, as the relevant area effectively turned into a war zone.

In Afghanistan, RAW-backed Indian strategy also suffered a major blow. India attempted to turn Afghanistan into a permanent regional partner by investing heavily in projects such as the Afghan-India Friendship Dam, also known as the Salma Dam, a Rs 1,775 crore multipurpose dam in Herat province. Besides that, India invested heavily in major road construction projects to secure its western strategic interests. However, the sudden collapse of the US-backed Ghani government in August 2021 dealt India a devastating blow. India not only lost a strategic partner, but also had to evacuate its diplomats from Afghanistan. It was a humiliating defeat for Indian strategic think tanks and RAW.

RAW, however, has also had notable successes in the region. It succeeded in the Hyderabad operation after the occupation of Hyderabad. It also succeeded in absorbing Sikkim and declaring it the 22nd state of India. Before the occupation of Sikkim, RAW had heavily penetrated the political party Sikkim National Congress (SNC). Its leader, Lhendup Dorji, became a central figure in that process. Almost all important leaders of the SNC were allegedly influenced, trapped, or compromised through political manipulation, personal weakness, and even honey-trapping.

A similar pattern of success was later attempted in Bangladesh through the Bangladesh Awami League (AL) and through other political groups as well. Supporters of AL were conditioned in such a way that, for many of them, loyalty to the party and party leadership became more important than loyalty to their own motherland, Bangladesh. This resembles the psychological and political condition that was created among the supporters of the SNC in Sikkim.

After the successful takeover of power by AL, RAW allegedly started preparing the ground in Bangladesh in a manner similar to Sikkim. The first major step was the killing of 57 military officers under the cover of the AL government in power. Alongside that, patriotic officers were gradually removed from different levels of the system under various pseudo-issues, including sting operations and manufactured allegations. The vacuum created by their removal was then filled with AL-minded officers, who were carefully verified and promoted through intelligence-linked channels.

The last 15 years have therefore been a significant success for RAW in pushing Bangladesh toward the fate of Sikkim. RAW achieved another major psychological success by changing the perception of a large section of our own people. Many Bangladeshis were made to believe that we cannot defend ourselves, and that India can occupy Bangladesh within two hours if it wants. This is one of the clearest examples of successful brainwashing.

The tragedy is that we do not have strong institutions to defend our people against the enemy’s peacetime psychological operations. We have almost authorized them, directly or indirectly, to brainwash our society at will. Indian TV channels can operate 24/7 in Bangladesh, but Bangladeshi channels are not given the same access to Indian citizens. Our cyber world is also open to them, allowing hostile ideological influence, profanity, cultural corruption, and social degradation to enter our society with full impunity.

Respect toward women is diminishing fast. Rape and social disorder are increasing. These cannot be viewed only as isolated social problems. They are also the successful outcomes of long-term brainwashing, mind control, cultural aggression, and ideological subversion generated by hostile intelligence designs.

Assassinating futuristic young political leaders in India’s seven sister states has allegedly been a routine affair for RAW-linked networks. One such group might have been employed to assassinate one of our most promising young leaders, HADI. Whether directly or indirectly, the pattern of targeting rising leadership must be taken seriously, because Bangladesh’s future political energy is now increasingly connected with its youth.

The main problem with India is similar to the problem with Israel. Both strongly believe in expansionist civilizational projects. One dreams of Greater Israel, and the other dreams of Akhand Bharat. The violently aggressive attitude of Godi media against Bangladesh is one clear example of that mindset. The worst-case scenario is the construction of Shiv and Ram mandirs in Dinajpur, which clearly exposes their notorious long-term plans. They bulldoze mosques throughout India, yet attempt to construct the tallest Ram statue inside Bangladesh. In fact, they are testing the resolve of the general masses of Bangladesh.

This is a complete failure of our present government for not taking appropriate action in time. It appears that RAW-aligned elements within AL, and possibly within parts of our political leadership, remain active even now. They need to be identified, exposed, investigated, lawfully prosecuted, and permanently removed from sensitive positions for the safety and security of our hard-earned sovereignty.

During the long 16 years of the Hasina regime, Bangladesh was enduring a slow-motion retreat from its hard-earned sovereignty. Therefore, any post-Hasina political transition should not be misunderstood as blind loyalty to democracy as an ideology, nor as personal allegiance to Tarique Rahman or to any political party. From my standpoint, the central issue is not partisan devotion, but the protection of Bangladesh’s sovereignty, dignity, and strategic independence.

In the present reality, if the removal of Hasina creates a political opening in which Tarique Rahman becomes the stronger alternative, then that must be understood as a matter of comparative necessity, not ideological worship. Between a regimes that weakened national sovereignty for 16 long years and an alternative that may reopen space for national recovery, the latter is undoubtedly the better option for Bangladesh. Credit goes to the Creator, who opened a path out of that suffocating political order.

Bangladesh is not only trying to secure its sovereignty again, but also to regain strategic strength regionally and geopolitically. Bangladesh has produced fiery young leaders like HADI, who has ignited the hearts of Gen Z. It will be difficult for the enemy to subdue their hearts so easily. Indian think tanks must understand that Bangladesh will defend its hard-earned sovereignty at any cost, with resolve, dignity, and strategic clarity.

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